Formação de preços de commodities agrícolas no Brasil: o caso particular da cadeia do arroz

Abstract

The objective of this paper was to analyze the price formation process in the rice production chain, considering both the prices practiced in the Brazilian domestic market and in the international market. The prices practiced on some trading exchanges were considered, namely the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Commodities and Futures Exchange (B3), in the main rice producing states in Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Mato Grosso) and in the other countries covered, Argentina and Uruguay. As a methodological instrument, time series econometric tools were used, including: Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test, to verify the stationarity of the series; Johansen Tests, to verify the existence of a cointegration relationship between the series and the Vector Autorregressive Model with Error Correction - VEC. The results show a significant influence between the analyzed markets, both in the short term and in the long term. One of the main conclusions is that Rio Grande do Sul, possibly because it is the largest rice producer in Brazil, is the main responsible for the price changes that occur in other Brazilian producer states and may also change the prices of some neighboring countries.