Balanço hídrico na bacia hidrográfica do rio Renato em cenários de mudanças climáticas

Abstract

Climate change has become a growing concern in the world, due to the high concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mainly caused by anthropogenic activities. The accumulation of these gases results in an increase in the global average temperature, and such changes would lead to drier and hotter summers, and changes in the volumes and distribution of rainfall. From this, the present work aimed to evaluate the behavior of projections using the technique of static donwscalling of rainfall and average air temperature by the HadGEM2-ES model under water availability in the Renato River basin in the Amazon region of state of Mato Grosso. To simulate the behavior of the basin, we used climatological data from the climate model in three scenarios for analysis, then we prepared the data to apply hydrological equations, then carried out the description of the variability found in average air temperature and precipitation between 2020 and 2090. The results point to a significant reduction in precipitation in the rainy months and an increase in maximum temperatures in the periods from 2031 to 2090, for evapotranspiration there is a tendency to increase in every year, especially in the dry months, where the air temperature becomes higher. With this, the analyzes can help in the decision making for better management of the water resource, considering that these climate changes may cause environmental, social and economic problems for the region.