O ajuste da taxa de juros como política monetária de controle da inflação na economia brasileira (1999-2021)

Abstract

As of 1999, a price stabilization policy was adopted in the Brazilian economy based on the Inflationary Targets Regime, replacing the initial policy of the Real Plan, which used the exchange rate anchor. The Inflation Targeting Regime is based on the theoretical strand of economic thinking of the New Macroeconomic Consensus, initially based on the New Classical School, and its objective refers to previously estimating a numerical target for inflation, aiming to achieve stability in prices. and less oscillation in the economy. In the Brazilian economy, the operationalization of how to reach the established target is anchored to the behavior of the basic interest rate, the so-called SELIC. Since 1999 in the years 2001, 2002, 2003, 2015 and 2021 the target has not been reached, and with that the problem of this research refers to identify the elements that explain inflation in the indicated years and the elements that indicate why the target regime was not effective. The results show that this is due to the fact that some types of inflation have a low sensitivity to changes in the Selic rate, such as inflations resulting from external and internal shocks, changes in administered prices, exchange rate crisis, inflationary inertia, among others.