Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial e mudanças cíclicas : evidências empíricas para o Brasil na crise de 2008

Abstract

The work is based on Thirlwall's Multisectoral Law (2007) to show from empirical data how Brazilian exports and imports, between 2002-2009, based on technological intensity infer on the growth rate. The analysis aims to capture the inflection in the Brazilian commercial insertion in the 2008 world economic crisis and its unfoldings in economic growth, for this a short term cycle is considered where moments prior to this world economic crisis are presented. Based on the empirical data and the bibliographical reference it was possible to analyze the data about the growth of the gross domestic product, and the growth rate of the per capita gross domestic product, and it was concluded that between the years of crisis 2008 and 2009 these indicators of economic performance reduced. Besides observing that the country's export mix is concentrated in low-technology sectors that present low income-elasticity of demand. On the other hand, the imports are concentrated in sectors of medium and high technological intensity where the highest income elasticity of demand can be found. The trade insertion was analyzed considering the main trade partners. In the less technology-intensive sectors, the largest export partners are the rest of the world and the European Union. As for imports, they are the rest of the world and Mercosur. The largest partners observed among the most technologically intensive products are the USA and Mercosur in exports and China and the European Union in imports. Finally, it was possible to see that there was an inflection in Brazilian exports and imports in the period and all sectors showed a drop in growth between 2008 and 2009.