A relação entre o preço interno e a quantidade exportada do algodão mato-grossense entre 2012 e 2022

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of the domestic price on the cotton export supply function for Mato Grosso, using a historical series that covers the period from 2012 to 2022. This state is responsible for a significant volume of global fiber production natural, in addition to being the largest representative of Brazilian exports, since the majority of production is directed abroad. The method used to develop the model was Vector Autoregression (VAR). The hypothesis worked is that increases in the domestic price, as well as the behavior of other variables, tend to influence the quantity of the product exported. The research showed that the science worked well with the ideal model to figure out how each factor affects how much cotton is exported and how much it costs in the state. It was possible to conclude that variables exogenous to the model were not significant enough to determine the quantity exported, although they may exert some influence on international prices. Although the quantity exported may exert some influence on international prices, the analysis reveals that shocks to domestic prices or exported cargo tend to have an influence.