O impacto da inflação sobre o setor da construção civil

Abstract

There is a lot of talk in Brazil about inflation in a bunch of fields, but civil construction is not one of them. This paper will be evaluating the impact of inflation on this particular field, through the analysis of units financed in this market. Several indices were used in this research, including the National Index of Construction Costs (INCC-DI), the General Price Index – Domestic Availability (IGP-DI), the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), and the Selic rate, as explanatory variables for the number of Financed Units for Construction (UFCONS). All these variables were subject to unit root testing using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and Johansen cointegration testing before being included in the Vector Error Correction Model (VEC). Based on the results from this model, the coefficients of the Contemporaneous Relations Matrix, the Variance Decomposition Analysis, and the Impulse Response Functions were analyzed within each of the three groups into which the variables were organized in this paper. The variation in the number of financed units in the construction sector becomes evident when analyzing the impact of the Selic rate on the market, highlighting how these variables meaningfully influence fluctuations and declines in response to unexpected shock, with that, among the variables analyzed, the Selic rate is the one that most negatively impacts the number of financed units. With this in mind, this monograph contributes to the analysis of the behavior of the construction sector in relation to the variables examined, demonstrating how the market for financed units is shaped in response to these factors.