Análise bayesiana dos fatores que influenciam no tempo até o óbito por covid-19 no município de Colíder-MT

Abstract

COVID-19 has been declared an international public health emergency by the World Health Organization, presenting significant challenges for Brazilian states and municipalities. This study, conducted in ColíderMT, aimed to identify a distribution function that best fits the patient’s hospitalization time until death from COVID-19 complications and to assess factors associated with increased risk of death. Using survival analysis and Bayesian inference, it was found that the risk of death from COVID-19 increases by roughly 2.7% per year of age. Patients with lung disease face a risk approximately 173% higher of dying from COVID-19 compared to those without this condition. In comparison, patients undergoing mechanical ventilation have a reduced risk of death by about 60%. Hopefully, these results will guide researchers, managers, and healthcare professionals in formulating effective strategies to combat the pandemic.