Avaliação do mecanismo clássico de transmissão da política monetária do Brasil em um sistema de metas de inflação

Abstract

Inflation targets were instituted in Brazil in 1999, and since then monetary policy has been sought to achieve these targets. Therewith, the work’s objective is to evaluate the classic transmission mechanism of the monetary policy and its functioning with the current inflation targeting system in the Brazilian economy. For that, were analyzed data between currency and interest rate; interest rate and investment; investment and product; Vector auto-regression (VAR) was used. This is a simultaneous equation model that can measure the influence that one variable has on another. The result between the currency and interest rate variables shows that there is a two-tailed relationship between currency and interest. The classic mechanism of monetary transmission can explain that relationship, but interest rates have had a greater influence on the currency than the other way around, confirming then the effectiveness of inflation targets in this context. In addition to this difference in the classic mechanism, the following remained. The interest rate continues to influence investments, in despite of being the lowest result presented. Investments have a great influence on the product. Thus, it is concluded that the classic mechanism of monetary transmission works, but there is also a very high percentage of influence of the interest rate on the currency, indicating then that the inflation target is also a determinant of that relationship.