O impacto da pandemia de coronavírus no setor imobiliário da cidade de São Paulo : uma abordagem de séries temporais interrompidas

Abstract

In the first semester of 2020, there was a 23% increase in real estate sales in São Paulo compared to the same period in 2019. Although these data initially suggest that the real estate sector in the capital was not negatively affected by the pandemic, in this study, we demonstrate that such a conclusion is not accurate. In order to estimate the actual impact of the pandemic on real estate sales and launches in 2020, it is necessary to compare the data with counterfactual scenarios that represent the sales and launches that would occur without the influence of the pandemic, rather than simply considering 2019 sales as a comparison baseline. To accomplish this, an analysis was conducted using the Interrupted Time Series (ITS) econometric model, utilizing cumulative data on sales and launches in the city of São Paulo from January 2017 to January 2021. Our results reveal that real estate indicators have suffered a significant impact due to the pandemic. When comparing the actual data with the non-pandemic scenario, sales, for example, experienced a decline of 7.24%, while the number of launches dropped by 14.63%. Among the factors that contributed to these reductions in indicators, the scarcity of raw materials and restrictions that limited companies' capacity to meet demand can be mentioned.