Perspectivas para áreas climaticamente adequadas para Ameerega berohoka (Anura: Dendrobatidae), espécie endêmica do Cerrado

Abstract

Global climate change has intensified in recent decades and this, coupled with deforestation, poses serious challenges for the conservation of anuran amphibians, especially for species that are more sensitive to landscape alteration or conversion. This study aims to understand the impact of climate change on the distribution of the endemic species of the Cerrado biome, Ameerega berohoka (Vaz-Silva & Maciel, 2011). Available literature records of the species' geographic distribution were compiled and potential distribution maps based on ecological niche modeling were produced. We presented models for the expected distribution in 2050 and 2080, considering a more optimistic scenario with less temperature increase and a more pessimistic one with greater temperature increase. The results revealed that the climatically suitable areas for the species tend to move to more southern regions of the Cerrado, compromising its survival in the central and northern areas of the biome. Therefore, despite being a species that is not at risk at present, it is possible that it will be at risk in the future, becoming a "climate refugee." So, if we don't reduce the emissions of gases that intensify climate change today and the worst-case scenario comes true, this and many other species will be at great risk of extinction in the future.