A indústria de transformação brasileira frente à crise do covid-19 : análise de impactos

Abstract

The COVID-19 crisis has caused a series of adversities in Brazilian industry. The manufacturing industry faced several challenges during the pandemic, such as lockdowns and border closures, and consequently suffered a drop in productivity and interruptions in imports and exports. In this context, this study sought to analyze and quantify the impacts caused by the health crisis on the manufacturing industry. Regarding the methodology, to measure the impacts, a quantitative analysis was carried out that included a structural break test using dummy variables and estimates of the impacts based on data developed by the Industry and Competitiveness Group of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Three different scenarios were constructed for the year 2020, analyzing separately the components of final demand and, consequently, the total impact on the Brazilian economy. Finally, sectoral comparisons were made using macroeconomic data during and after the pandemic, focusing on industrial production, the labor market, and tax collection between 2020 and 2023. However, the study's analysis shows that even though the service sector was most impacted, mainly because it represents a large portion of job creation and wages, the manufacturing industries showed a decline in both revenue and value added, which are economic indicators supplied by these industries and are essential for long-term economic growth. Furthermore, the pandemic accelerated digitalization and revealed Brazil's dependence on imported inputs. In short, public policies that promote productive autonomy and raise awareness among companies to invest in new technologies that reduce the use of natural resources as the main strategy should be implemented, as they are viable and necessary to increase the industry's competitiveness and sustain the economy after the crisis.